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Global cotton production and supply under dark clouds.

Textile Raw materials market
Xinjiang accounts for the production of about 20% of the world’s cotton. China’s Xinjiang warned of more flash floods, mudslides, and risks to agriculture as heatwaves swept across the region, accelerating the pace of glacial melt and posing hazards for its vast cotton production. China has been baked by above-normal summer heat since June, with some meteorologists blaming climate change. The scorching weather has driven the demand for electricity to cool homes, offices, and factories. In agricultural regions, drought has been a concern.

Xinjiang’s latest heatwaves have been long-lasting and widespread, Chen Chunyan, chief expert at the Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory. Ruoqiang in the southeast of Xinjiang activated a red alert — the highest in a three-tier heat warning system — on Friday evening, forecasting temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) or more for the next 24 hours. Xinjiang is not suffering alone, and another round of extreme temperatures is expected to affect some 20 provinces.

Not only China, a record heat wave scorching much of Texas threatens the state’s agricultural harvests. Cotton, Texas’ largest planted area crop, could see the most extensive production decline in over a decade. Temperatures have exceeded historical averages in many parts of Texas this year. This display from the Gro Portal shows daily temperature differences versus the 10-year mean for Lubbock, Texas, a major cotton-growing region.

A significant drop in cotton production in Texas, the largest US cotton-producing state, would impact global cotton supplies since the US is the largest cotton exporter. Worldwide cotton production is expected to increase in 2022/23, mainly on gains in China and India slightly. Although exports from the US and India are seen lower, this should be offset by expected higher exports from Brazil and Australia.

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